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Bayes… Who? An Alternative Approach to Statistical Testing

18/04/2025 /

Imagine starting a new job and having to drive to the office on your first day. You’ve never been there before, but you know it’s next to a gym you used to go to. From experience, you remember that it typically takes about 30 minutes to get to the gym at that time of day — even though the last time you went was over a year ago (you eventually stopped going, but that’s another story).

Now it’s your first day on the job, and you need to decide what time to leave the house. Let’s imagine you don’t have access to GPS or navigation data. What would you do?

  1. Use the information you already have (even if it’s outdated) and plan for a 30-minute drive?
  2. Or ignore everything you know and randomly pick a departure time?

Naturally, the first option makes more sense — you’d rely on the information you have rather than ignore it completely.

Well, if that reasoning makes sense to you, then you’re already on your way to understanding a Bayesian approach to statistics.

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We’re back!

16/03/2025 /

After 8 long years, Datastory.it begins its second life. Then again, if David Lynch could wait over 25 years between seasons of Twin Peaks, our 8 years don’t seem so long.

Many things have changed during this time, but not our passion for crafting stories through data. We hope you’re just as eager to read them as we are to share them!

Our manifesto remains the same, driven by the same enthusiasm as in the beginning, but now enriched with even more stories, anecdotes, and experiences to tell. Plus, starting today, the site features an English section with all articles translated.

Sit back, relax and enjoy the read!

The Misleading Power of Correlation

13/12/2016 /

Have you ever heard a phrase like this? “A new Nicholas Cage movie just came out, so the number of people who drown in swimming pools is about to rise.” Probably not, and if you did hear it from a friend… well, you might have asked yourself a few questions about their mental state. However, looking at the graph below – based on real data – your friend might actually be right.

grafico-correlazione
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The cake paradox

14/10/2016 /

A few days ago at work, I found myself in one of those situations where numbers behave in a counterintuitive way. A situation where an apparently logical reasoning leads to incorrect conclusions—what I call the cake paradox.

I brought up cakes because I used them to explain (with difficulty) to my colleagues where the trick was.

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The useleness of absolute numbers

26/05/2016 /

A few days ago, I was reading an article about accidents involving cyclists. Being an avid cyclist and dealing with data and numbers of all kinds every day, I immediately noticed this sentence: “The regions most affected by accidents are those where bicycles are a real tradition: Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia Romagna, and Tuscany. Incidents tend to occur on Saturdays and Sundays, between 10 AM and 12 PM, during the months of May to October, with a peak in August.”

What seems odd to you?

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Don’t trust the latecomers

15/01/2016 /

When creating a blog, one of the first things to do is to come up with a name. Before choosing datastory.it, we considered several options, but some of them were already taken. On one of these sites, we came across a phrase that made our few remaining hairs stand on end. It went something like this:
“This site contains an algorithm capable of generating Lotto numbers that are more likely to be drawn than others.”

Such words sound to a statistician like a blasphemy sounds to a priest. Have you ever heard of “hot numbers” or “overdue numbers”? Surely you have. Well, we can guarantee you that these numbers are meaningless, and there is no algorithm capable of generating numbers more likely to be drawn than others. Let’s explore why.

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The Sad Story of the Inductivist Turkey

26/11/2015 /

It’s Christmas dinner, an allegory of abundance and a stage for opulence. Your neighbor at the table, probably a fourth cousin whose name you barely remember, is starting to show signs of giving up and is desperately seeking your complicit gaze. But with feigned nonchalance and reckless boldness, you act as if you’re still hungry, even though the amount of food you’ve just consumed could satisfy the caloric needs of the entire province of Isernia. Then, as the third hour of dinner strikes, a new, succulent course is brought out: a stuffed turkey.

At that moment, in a fleeting pang of consciousness – typically left at home during such occasions (otherwise, how else could one explain such an absurd amount of food?) – you wonder about the story behind the turkey in front of you.

This turkey lived on a farm where, from day one, it was fed regularly. The turkey noticed that food was brought every day at the same time, regardless of the season, weather, or other external factors.

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A statistical approach to terrorism

22/11/2015 /

Datastory.it is also about current events, and following the attacks in Paris, we want to share our opinion on the matter.

The series of attacks that struck the French capital on November 13, 2015, seems to have shaken public opinion and mobilized European governments. In newspapers, parliaments, and international forums, the primary focus is how to ensure safety and prevent the horrific events in Paris from happening again. Many hypotheses are being considered: stricter border controls, revising the Schengen Agreement, increased surveillance in high-risk areas, and the installation of cameras in major cities.

Additionally, there are discussions about allocating more personnel and resources to security (the press mentions €400 million in Belgium, €120 million in Italy). And then there are the bombings in Iraq and Syria, with the United States, Russia, and France taking the lead. Some estimates suggest the U.S. spends $10 million daily on these operations, while Russia spends about a third of that amount.

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What’s Datastory.it?

07/11/2015 /

Datastory.it is a forge of numbers, information, and impressions about the reality that surrounds us.

Not just a container, but a workshop full of tools where raw data is analyzed and refined until an essential essence of information emerges. Like artisans of numbers, we will shape data, breathe life into it, and make it a valuable aid in interpreting reality.

Scientific data will be the guiding star that leads us through the events of the world around us. But the paths to reach our destination can be many and vastly different from one another.

Data is unique yet contradictory, unequivocal yet ambiguous – a fundamental pillar of one theory and the cornerstone of its exact opposite. Those who work with numbers know that what truly matters is not the data itself, but the interpretation given to it, and consequently the “story” built around it.

Our goal is to go beyond the first impression of a number, to avoid taking the easiest path simply because it seems straightforward and free of pitfalls. Instead, we will strive to analyze data in all its myriad facets and interpret reality in unconventional ways—sometimes provocative or irreverent.

But we won’t bore you with just numbers and stories about numbers. We’ll also delve into the world of those who work with numbers (a world we’re part of). And finally, we’ll use this platform to share our stories and ideas—please forgive us if some posts stray a bit off-topic.

Welcome aboard, and enjoy the journey.

“…few people will appreciate the music if I just show them the notes. Most of us need to listen to the music to understand how beautiful it is. But often that’s how we present statistics; we just show the notes, we don’t play the music.”
—Hans Rosling

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