Tag: Probability

The useleness of absolute numbers

A few days ago, I was reading an article about accidents involving cyclists. Being an avid cyclist and dealing with data and numbers of all kinds every day, I immediately noticed this sentence: “The regions most affected by accidents are those where bicycles are a real tradition: Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia Romagna, and Tuscany. Incidents tend to occur on Saturdays and Sundays, between 10 AM and 12 PM, during the months of May to October, with a peak in August.”

What seems odd to you?

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Don’t trust the latecomers

When creating a blog, one of the first things to do is to come up with a name. Before choosing datastory.it, we considered several options, but some of them were already taken. On one of these sites, we came across a phrase that made our few remaining hairs stand on end. It went something like this:
“This site contains an algorithm capable of generating Lotto numbers that are more likely to be drawn than others.”

Such words sound to a statistician like a blasphemy sounds to a priest. Have you ever heard of “hot numbers” or “overdue numbers”? Surely you have. Well, we can guarantee you that these numbers are meaningless, and there is no algorithm capable of generating numbers more likely to be drawn than others. Let’s explore why.

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